After 17 years in M&A, Derivatives and Trading, I'm spending my time with young entrepreneurs in and around financial technology and digital media.... Read more »

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A Prescriptive for Today's Turbulent Markets? Cool Heads Prevail.

August 28, 2007

Every day brings some other piece of bad news. This lender is in trouble, this economic statistic looks bad, sentiment is poor, etc. These are times when it is best to adopt the Warren Buffet posture - avoid CNBC, Wall Street chatter and all forms of PR-driven hysteria. If we could move to Omaha, we'd all be better off at times like these. Because at the end of the day, all the current news cycle does is play on our human weaknesses and tempt us to make perverse decisions. Like selling out of fear. Like bailing out of perfectly good equities and fixed-income securities because of generalizing problems across individual securities and asset classes. And this is why most investors are poor at being active managers while a precious few take advantage of this phenomenon to feast on the rest of us.

It is what it is, I guess. But I am here to suggest that you not give into fear and uncertainty, but to keep a level head and to evaluate your portfolio and your prospects using data and facts, not suspicion and conjecture. I know this is hard, believe me. It is "gut check" time when you see the DJIA drop 300, Asia crater shortly thereafter and you can't pick up a newspaper anywhere around the globe without hearing of the subprime meltdown, hedge fund redemptions and a scared and jittery Fed. But like I wrote previously, it is the contra-instinct that is likely your best guide right now. George Costanza had it right. Do the opposite.

My best guess is that things will be pretty ugly for the next 12-18 months. I don't anticipate that the market will crater, but I do think the ripple effects of troubles with mortgage securities and the real estate sector will have far-reaching effects, and cause an economic adjustment that will be painful and time consuming. If bad credits default and good credits can't get mortgage loans, and there is a glut of real property flooding the market that will be liquidated for cents on the dollar in distress, and all those consumer durables filling those homes won't be filling them any more, and Home Depot and the like won't be selling as many building supplies, and consumer confidence weakens, etc., this is not a pretty picture. But I believe that there will be two constituencies that will flourish in the near- and medium-term in the wake of today's markets - those with the intestinal fortitude to hold on to good assets that the market is discounting now but will reward later, and value-oriented long/short hedge fund managers.

I think we'll be entering a stock-pickers market, one where those with a deep-value orientation and stock-picking skill will shine. The cream rises to the top in uncertain times, where margins of safety are large and actual performance and returns on invested capital carry the day. My hypothesis is that the top long/short managers that have been running 100/40 long/short books will become much flatter, much less net-long, and revert to 80/60-type positions where conviction and analysis rule. I may be wrong, but it feels like a time similar to the early 2000s when top long/short managers just ripped it while the tech bubble was deflating. Time will tell, but this is my "blink" visceral reaction to the goings on. To the extent you can, act like one of these hedge fund managers. Keep a cool head. Really get a grip on your portfolio. And don't do anything rash. Because there are a group of smart, opportunistic, dispassionate people out there ready to take the other side of the trade and eat your lunch.

Prioritizing the Development Pipeline: Listening to the Will of the People

I run a technology start-up. One of the things we grapple with is choosing what to build next. Is it this feature or that? This product extension or that feature enhancement? It is a hard, hard problem. In our business, it is the distilling of human customer feedback that governs pipeline prioritization, which is the way it should be. But it is an uncomfortable melding of art and science that is not wholly satisfying to one more empirically inclined. So consider a world where you could extract sentiment from a large pool of people to help guide your decision-making, where empiricism, pragmatism and speed come together to help make good decisions quickly. Sounds pretty cool, right? This is yet another example of what can be accomplished by leveraging the Internet.

Consider this example as described in today's New York Times:

Users of Facebook, the social networking service, make up for any shortcomings in spelling, grammar and punctuation with their sheer numbers. After nearly 14,000 people joined “bring back Wispa” groups on Facebook, the food conglomerate Cadbury Schweppes announced on Aug. 17 that it would reintroduce the candy bar in October.

Companies everywhere are monitoring blogs and other online discussions for feedback on their brands and providing them with information about coming products, as well as placing so-called viral advertisements on video-sharing sites. But the company insisted that the expressions of affection for Wispa on the Internet were genuine.

The campaign for Wispa, and the decision by Cadbury to revive it, shows what can happen when nostalgia about lost brands converges with user-generated content and social networking sites.http://www.typepad.com/t/app/weblog/post?blog_id=375671

“This is the first time that the power of the Internet played such an intrinsic role in the return of a Cadbury brand,” the company said.

Cadbury said it had identified 93 user groups on Facebook calling for a return of Wispa. Fans posted video clips from 1980s advertisements for Wispa, featuring stars of British television shows like “Hi-de-Hi!” and “Yes Minister,” on YouTube, the video-sharing Web site.

This is totally amazing on so many fronts. That the Internet could have such an impact on corporate strategy. That Cadbury, an established, old-line company, could be as forward-looking as to consider such input in a product development decision. At infinity, there is no doubt that using the Law of Large Numbers as a tool for selecting product development initiatives is the way to go. It is just hard, in real life, to find situations such as these. My guess is that we'll see more of this - and soon. And that product managers the world over will be thanking their lucky stars that the power of the Internet is in full bloom - and only getting more robust with time.

The New York Venture Scene is Rocking!

August 26, 2007

As both an active angel investor and entrepreneur, I can say one thing for sure: macroeconomic woes aside, the New York early-stage investment scene is vibrant, exciting, and full of possibilities. I have seen more interesting deals with strong business models than any time over the past three years: deal quality is just getting better. And the kinds of deals I've been seeing and working on have been concentrated in four key sectors: digital media, social media, gaming and financial technology. What I can say is that video is booming; monetizing the wonder that is Facebook is only picking up steam; the dedication, passion and monies spent by gamers is getting increased attention; and that making money from those with money is a time-honored passion and one that is a key focus in today's market.

I'll write more shortly about my own personal investment activities, but I felt compelled to share my perceptions of what is going on across Silicon Alley. The energy spanning the New York venture scene is palpable. I am excited to see it continue and pick up momentum. I'd love to hear about what you're seeing as well.

Pier 40: A Jewel for the Downtown Community, NYC and Children Everywhere

August 24, 2007

For those of you who are unaware, Pier 40 is a 15 acre site on the Hudson River located just west of Greenwich Village in Downtown NYC. While some of its space is used to provide low-cost parking, most of its square footage is devoted to playing fields that serve much of the Downtown community. Park space is disappearing as commercial and residential development takes hold, and Pier 40 is one of the most valuable remaining open spaces suitable for playing fields.

Pier_40

Problem is, a broken process to solicit proposals for developing Pier 40 have put the community and NYC in the position of possibly facing a seriously flawed project from the Related Companies. The Related proposal would turn the most desirable playing fields into a permanent installation for Cirque de Soleil, movie theaters, restaurants and other non park-like activities. Now I love New York for its food, movies and performances, but I can tell you that these three things are far more abundant than playing fields, and can be situated in many more places than the open space required for multiple baseball diamonds, soccer and football fields. The prospect of taking Pier 40 away from its highest and best use - active recreation space for the benefit of Hudson River Park, the Downtown community and all of NYC - is too sad for words.

Rather then get depressed and weepy, a group of concerned community, business and civic leaders banded together to form the Pier 40 Partnership. The group's formation was catalyzed by a community hearing on May 3rd to discuss the development proposals, which was attended by over 2,000 concerned citizens.  We have been meeting with City and State Government officials to make our case, and have already garnered significant contributions towards a private-public partnership to support the right development project for Pier 40. Fred Wilson, who is also involved with Pier 40 Partnership and set up the group's website, has a terrific post on Pier 40 as well. If you want to get involved, please drop me a note and I'll help figure out how to make it happen.

Can Facebook Become THE Uber App? Yes.

August 23, 2007

I know, I know. Yet another take on Facebook, and this from a slightly long-in-the-tooth, techno Johnny-come-lately. But hear me out, because as a new-comer to the community and one who is clearly NOT representative of its core demographic, I see a way that it could bridge the gap among friends, family and professional relationships while preserving privacy and access on an as-desired basis. And this, from my perspective, could make Facebook THE killer app for all forms of social network management:

Provide the ability to create three sub-profiles, personal, family and work, the contents of which are tagged and stored in a master profile but which are only displayed pursuant to their tags. Provide full integration with LinkedIn with a revenue sharing model, and we'd see LinkedIn use skyrocket by bringing Facebook users into the fold while Facebook could tap into the attractive mature professional demographic that would deepen its data and add valuable, high CPC eyeballs to its user base. Finally, add full email integration in order to open up the messaging layer and facilitate integration with legacy email accounts.

It seems to me that the principal value of Facebook to its users, as with most online applications, is data. My accumulated data. The data I may have taken years to build. Pictures, contacts, notes, groups, etc. Just as with a gamer who has built an identity in WoW and acquired powers and stuff, the legacy one has painstakingly constructed has immense value. The difference, however, is that while a gamer's identity is fungible, i.e., you can sell your identity, tools, powers, etc. in the market, one's personal identity is not.  This is why Facebook and apps like it, say LinkedIn, where enormous personal investment happens over long periods of time, create stickiness and have the potential for annuitized revenue like none other. And as one moves from crazy college co-ed to buttoned-down professional, it is hard to stomach (if not completely unacceptable) tossing out one's Facebook identity simply because of some youthful escapades that might not look too good when scrutinized as part of a background check. But this is a harsh reality. HR departments can and do go to Facebook to check out stuff on new hires; the cat is out of the bag on that one.

But while Facebook in college and shortly thereafter is a great way to remain connected to friends and keep them apprised of your goings on, it can quickly become a powerful business networking tool as one moves into the workforce and enters the next phase of life. But what about the problem of those embarrassing pictures from that tequila-fueled toga fest from when you were 19 years old on your profile? How about tagging all that stuff "Personal," and only permitting certain types of friends to access this profile? Wouldn't that be great? For me this isn't an issue, since I was already a (relatively) mature guy by the time I got on Facebook (one month ago), and I don't have any such pictures on my profile (fortunately digital photography was a glimmer in someone's eye when I was in undergrad), but for those, say, two decades younger than me this is a real and serious issue. And what about family? Some may not want their moms, dads and Aunt Hildas checking out such Facebook content (should Aunt Hilda be surfing the web and digging for dirt). In fact, one may want a more sanitized version of their Personal profile to be available for viewing by Family members. This would seem to make sense as well.

And then there's work. I use LinkedIn. I use Facebook. I personally want one app, one place where I can manage my social networks. LinkedIn is a great tool, but its social networking functionality, look and feel pretty much stink. Facebook provides a far richer, deeper, more dynamic and meaningful experience, one that I find very valuable in my professional life. Let's get them together. Let me import my LinkedIn contacts into Facebook, into a profile called Professional. I don't want to start building up a contacts database de novo by using one of the available Facebook apps - I want all my LinkedIn information incorporated into my Facebook profile. Now. These are two great companies with two great user bases that, over time, should meld into one. Let's get the ball rolling. Today's high schoolers will be in the work force in five years. Today's college students less than that. These are the future Professional users. Let's lay the foundation for them to build and manage three sub-profiles by implementing a tagging layer to separate one's spheres - Personal, Family and Professional. To me it makes all the sense in the world. Now I just need for Mark Zuckerberg to hear my call.

I'm sure I'm the 7,453th person to come up with these ideas. I just haven't read them. But I do think they make common sense and would cement Facebook's primacy as THE social networking platform. But they gotta open it up, adopt a more comprehensive view of one's life and social networks and facilitate the tagging of data to create these sub-profiles. I've got to believe that legacy Facebook users would love the comfort of knowing that they could safely add to their profiles without risking their jobs or freaking out their families. And isn't this what identity management is all about?

A Few Thoughts on Market Dislocations

August 21, 2007

The events over the past few months have been fascinating, at least when taking a clinical view of things. It is like a slow-motion train wreck where the force of the collision spreads detritus all across the landscape. Is this like LTCM? No. Is this the emerging markets debt crisis redux? No. Did legacy government policies contribute to a real-estate bubble that has seemed poised to pop for years? Yes. The current crisis is, in fact, a contagion, where Wall Street and Main Street are inextricably linked in a complex web of relationships that only time and suffering will help untangle. And do we have Alan Greenspan sitting in his exalted perch pulling strings and lending confidence and authority behind the scenes? No. And this is part of what makes this story so compelling.

What are some of the factors that make this market meltdown so, well, intriguing?

Quasi-governmental agencies competing with the private sector: Long story short, it seems to me that Congress let FNMA and FHLMC get way, way too big, doing business well beyond their original charter. They used an implicit government guarantee to provide ready credit to too many homeowners, and fostered a competitive landscape that placed origination volume over loan quality, the problems of which we are dealing with today.

Rating agencies not imagining beyond their Monte Carlo simulations: Investors rely heavily on ratings. Issuers pay rating agencies lots of money to validate their securities, which, on its face is a conflict of interest. Well, let's forget about that for the moment. Getting back to ratings quality, what is the purpose of having ratings if they are adjusted post-facto? Isn't this kind of like Wall Street sell-side analysts putting a Sell rating on a stock after they whiff on earnings, when they previously had a Buy rating on it? And this happens every day. Boo.

Leverage, leverage everywhere: Homeowners. Securitized vehicles. Investors. With leverage comes reduced margin for error, and with error comes pain. The issue is that the pain incurred does not move linearly, it moves exponentially. Once the pain starts happening, its effects ripple outward, often swallowing everything in its path. With a leveraged portfolio, a normal drop hurts, but isn't fatal. However, when the drop moves beyond normal, beyond the expected, the investor is asked for more collateral, which causes further downward pressure on portfolio value as liquidations are needed to make margin calls. But as more securities are sold in a rapidly declining market bids start to fall away, committing the leveraged investor to months in purgatory, working out a busted book. And what about homeowners? As adjustable rate mortgages get reset sharply upward and payments can't be made, remember the value of that equity in a home? Poof. Now what if that happens 1,000, 100,000, a million times or more? All those real assets flooding the market? There is no bid. Which causes builders' inventory to crater, which kills their stock prices, which hurts investors' portfolios, consumer demand, etc. It just goes on and on.

A rookie running the Fed: I don't envy Mr. Bernanke. Not for a minute. His wealth of deeply-felt, academically-grounded views and best of intentions by seeking to avoid the "moral hazard" of a Fed put all went out the window in less then a week. There is nothing more hazardous to one's professional reputation than being at the helm of a true market Chernobyl, especially when you were just given the keys to the reactor, but this is what Ben is facing early in his tenure. He was (and still is) staring at a liquidity crunch right in the face, challenging it to a game of "who'll blink first," and he lost. And fast. Notwithstanding my leanings towards letting the chips fall where they may and letting those who made bad and irresponsible decisions get smoked, Mr. Bernanke made the only decision he really could make. Even if it went directly against statements he made earlier in the month concerning his focus on inflation pressures and, therefore, stable to higher - not lower - interest rates. Water under the bridge. He's learning. Dust him off, wind him up and he'll be ready for the next (read: inevitable) series of crises during his tenure.

A pro running the Treasury: As much as Mr. Bernanke is grounded in academia, Mr. Paulson is steeped in global financial realities. The academic vs. the pragmatist. They are really great foils for each other, especially at a time like this. While Mr. Bernanke is clearly the bell of the ball of the global financial markets, there can be little doubt that notwithstanding Treasury Secretary Paulson's low profile during this crisis, he is having an influence on Fed thinking. He spent a career at one of the most successful and deft global financial powerhouses, leading part of the charge during its worldwide expansion. Let me tell you, it makes me a lot more comfortable knowing that Hank is back there providing his two cents to Ben and his Fed pals, because he knows the way it is, not the way it should be as depicted in Ph.D dissertations and textbooks. In another few years, Hank and Ben could be a virtual "dream team," the princes of theory and practice side-by-side. Nice.

I think we are in the early innings of a global financial de-leveraging that will necessarily take place, and it will be the skill of those like Messrs. Bernanke and Paulson along with their EU and Asian colleagues that will dictate how the air is let out of the bubble. Moral hazard sucks, and we are right in the midst of some pretty morally hazardous stuff taking place from a policy perspective. Certain firms and investors will be bailed out though they shouldn't be, but net net, the impact of letting them go may well be far worse then showing the financial community that the Bernanke Fed will not be issuing put options as the Greenspan Fed did. There are times and places for making points, grand, sweeping points, but this is not one of them. The next twelve months should be challenging for investors across many if not most asset classes, and it is largely due to the government messing things up and then trying to fix them post-facto. And this is the real hazard that should be driving the discussion.

Retail vs. Institutional Investors: Compare and Contrast

August 19, 2007

My recent post concerning the challenges of being a retail investor, especially when using strategies and approaches generally the province of Institutional Investors, caused quite an (unintended) stir. My piece was designed to highlight the risks associated with being a retail investor and wading into complex territory, and to make a recommendation for keeping the core of one's strategy brutually simple (and cost-efficient) while leaving some room to stretch for outperformance. A common thread running through the more critical comments I received were of the nature "Well, how can you write this when Institutional investors (read: hedge funds) have been doing incredibly stupid things and losing boatloads of money? Isn't it arrogant of you to say that retail has problems when institutions have plenty of problems of their own?" Answer: yes I can write this and and no it's not arrogant - they are two different issues entirely. But since I clearly left some ambiguity on the table, let me clarify and be more precise about a few things:

1. When I say "retail investor," I mean an individual for whom investing is not a full-time vocation; it is a necessity and/or a hobby;

2. Institutional investors are those for whom investing is a full-time vocation, enabling them to spend more time doing research then even the most talented of retail investors. Further, most Institutional investors make a goodly living off their vocation;

3. When I discuss the frailties of humans as investors, they apply to both retail and Institutional investors; it is only that a small subset of investors. be they retail or Institutional, have the ability to overcome these frailties; and

4. When I talk about discipline, the challenges of remaining consistent and sound in one's strategy applies equally to both retail and Institutional investors.

Ergo, carrying a card that reads "Institutional Investor" does not somehow imbue you with skills and abilities that automatically make you successful, just as being labeled "retail" does not, by definition, correspond to the word "idiot." My belief is that almost all investors, be they retail or Institutional by stripe, are not good. Those who can generate true, sustained, statistically-significant outperformance over long periods of time are rare. No, more than rare. But I care less about the failures of Institutional investors as people because they, quite frankly, make a lot of money as a group, while retail investors span the economic strata. This is why I choose to write about retail and my wish for them, as a group, to think smart, be humble, and take a rational and serious (read: "This is not fun - this is business") approach to investing. If this is arrogant, so be it. Excuse me. But I think someone without a vested interest needs to write this stuff because it is a perspective too often lost amidst the hype.

Retail Investors + Complex Investments = Failure

August 16, 2007

I feel like Will Ferrell in The Wedding Crashers uttering his signature line, "What is she doing back there?" The only difference is that he is wondering when his meat loaf is coming while I am pondering when retail investors are going to wake up and adopt a realistic view of their investment abilities. I'm sure Will's ma brought that meat loaf a hell of a lot faster than most retail investors will say, "You know what, I'm not as smart as I think I am. Smart investing is pretty complicated and is a serious business." As IA readers know, idiot retail investment ideas and approaches are a pet peeve of mine and drive me absolutely bonkers, and my ire was raised to a fever pitch when reading a thoroughly disgusting article in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal titled Small Investors, Too, Get Nailed by Arcane Trades. I have only one simple question upon hearing this news: WHY???

So glad you asked. Here are my theories (in no particular order):

  1. Hubris
  2. Greed
  3. Stupidity
  4. Fear
  5. Lack of knowledge
  6. Because most humans are wired to make dumb investment decisions

When I hear of retail investors engaging in multi-legged option strategies, trading foreign exchange and commodities and shorting stocks, I cringe. How many lumps are people going to require to wake up and grow a little humility? I get it - the psychological phenomenon, that is - but I DON'T GET IT. There have been countless stories documenting the sheer idiocy of so many retail investors, being in way over their head and getting killed. So why do people continue making the same mistakes? For the exact opposite reason of why Warren Buffett really is a once-in-a-generation type investor: discipline.

Discipline, especially when it goes against one's native instincts, is hard. When your friend brags about a particular stock or strategy on the golf course, you are jealous, right? And when you hear stories of people making tons in _____ (choose your era - tech stocks, commodities, currencies, gold, etc.), regardless of a lack of documentation (self-reporting is notoriously poor as people tend to remember wins and forget losses), you want in, right? It is very hard to be the tortoise when you are seemingly surrounded by hares. But you know what, you can try your hand a bit if you adhere to a few simple guidelines:

  1. Set an asset allocation mix that makes sense for your age, stage, family circumstance, etc. If you can't do this with confidence get some help;
  2. Establish the majority of your allocation using low-cost, liquid instruments like index funds and ETFs;
  3. Figure out if you want to try and dicker with investing at all, and if the answer is yes;
  4. Limit your "play money" to 5-10% of your total portfolio.

By all means have some fun. Do some research. Collaborate with others. Try and generate some real alpha. But don't, DON'T have this be the core of your investment strategy. Please. Don't. Do. It. If you follow my advice you can get the high of investing without running the risk of an overdose. Because an overdose can kill you.

Making Your Mark on the Street: Taking the Road Less Traveled

August 15, 2007

I take a lot of crap from my Wall Street-oriented readers for writing too much about gaming, technology, etc., and not enough about my experiences on the Street. So, it is in that spirit that I share some thoughts with you on how to differentiate yourself, how to separate yourself from the pack as you are building your career. Wall Street, its training programs and implicit mentoring system pushes for conformity, for the development of a set of core skills that you can apply in your area of focus. In fact, one's skill set can be significantly impacted by the mentor whom you chose or who chooses you, taking a pretty large measure of control away from you. Now, developing a solid tool-kit is absolutely critical for success, don't get me wrong. But there is a big difference between competing both internally (with your peers) and externally (in client turf battles) on the same playing field, versus changing the field entirely. Huh? What I mean is the following:

By playing the game the way it has historically been defined, you are limiting yourself to only marginal victories versus your competition. The only degrees of freedom are those of sheer intellect and skill (of which there is little variation across the top tier firms) and those of firm quality and reputation (which is meaningful but whose impact can be overcome through intellect and skill). The key to scoring big wins is by changing the game entirely.

As I think about it, this is not entirely dissimilar from what Nintendo has done with the Wii. Instead of getting into a feature and functionality war with Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo said "We're playing a different game. And that game is ease of use and fun for gamers of all levels." And because of this, they have expanded the gaming pie, and captured an extremely large and valuable piece of this enlarged pie. An analogy in my career was established early on in derivatives, when I decided to apply a different approach to the marketing and design of derivative strategies: applying a value-driven, corporate finance framework to hedging programs. My background prior to entering derivatives was in M&A, so I understood the principles and techniques of security valuation. This was not a skill commonly held by those in derivatives in the early 1990s. Most successful derivatives transactors were more product-oriented, super-bright but very focused on designing the most creative and valuable strategies in a vacuum. This was neither an area of competitive advantage for me nor an approach that resonated with me, so I decided to try something different - using firm value and Economic Value-Added as yardsticks for whether a risk management strategy made sense or not.

Seems pretty basic, right? Well, in the early 1990s it wasn't very common. I was speaking a different language to many of the Treasurers and CFOs with whom I interacted, a language that they understood far better than what many of the more experienced product-driven derivatives pros were speaking. My approach also made my strategies more easily salable to Boards of Directors, as approaches that demonstrably reduced risk and/or increased firm value were hard to dispute. And this new playing field enabled me to carve out a niche in the corporate derivatives business very quickly, building a franchise that I was able to leverage and parlay into high-value client relationships for over a decade. From my perspective I was doing something that was good for my clients, good for my firm and good for myself. It was fun. It was exciting. I felt good about the advice I was giving. And it was, for a meaningful period of time, quite different than what the competition was pitching.

Was this a "disruptive technology" in Clay Christensen-speak? Probably not. But by taking the road less traveled, by taking a chance on re-defining the game, it made all the difference in my career.

Selling Stock When Bad News is Coming? Bad, Bad Form

August 14, 2007

Microsoft's Xbox 360 extended warranty announcement, which carried a $1.15 billion charge to earnings along with it, was certainly not good news for the company or the H&E Division. One might even call a charge of this magnitude material, even for a company of Microsoft's heft. This means, as a matter of both prudence and law, that one shouldn't be selling in advance of such news if someone is in possession of material non-public information. Then what on earth is going on when the a person intimately tied to such an announcement, say, the President of the H&E Division, sells a goodly chunk of stock shortly before such an announcement is made public? From today's GameDaily BIZ:

Last month, we reported that President of Microsoft's Entertainment & Devices Division, Robbie Bach, sold off roughly $6.2 million in company stock prior to the Xbox 360 warranty extension, which cost Microsoft $1.15 billion.

As it turns out, however, according to a report from MarketWatch, Bach actually sold $3 million more in stock than was previously reported. Bach sold just over $3 million worth of company stock on May 1, but Microsoft spokesman Eric Hollreiser said the additional $3 million in sales were not registered in a timely manner with the SEC "as the result of an administrative error."

Just as before with Bach previous stock sale, Hollreiser said that the additional $3 million was completely unrelated to Microsoft's Xbox 360 repair announcement.

Now given the legal and compliance controls and infrastructure in place at Microsoft, I am virtually certain Mr. Bach's actions were within the letter of the law. It appears that there was around a two month time lag between the stock sales and the warranty announcement. That said, legal implications aside, this smells bad. Were I a MSFT investor (which I am not), how would it make me feel. Two words: pissed off.  Now the announcement only dropped the stock around 1.5%, but is that the point? You've got to believe that such a big decision on the part of Microsoft (the warranty charge decision) had to have percolated over several weeks, and had to have included Mr. Bach at the table. If this is the case, then isn't it better to be overly prudent and cautious and to black out such an executive from trading company shares? I'd think so. But hey, that's just me.

Let the Games Begin: The Private New Issuance Market Heats Up

It was just a matter of time; bulge bracket Wall Street was sure to follow Goldman Sachs into the private issuance market. And the time is now. A five-headed competitor to the GS TrUE platform has been unveiled with yet another catchy name: OPUS-5 (do I sense some oenophiles in this Wall Street fraternity?). As reported in today's Wall Street Journal:

A group of Wall Street titans are joining forces to create a rival venue to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s private system to trade the stocks of companies that don't want the scrutiny and regulatory burdens of going public.

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Citigroup Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co., Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. have established the Open Platform for Unregistered Securities. The firms say OPUS-5 "will provide trade reservation, shareholder tracking and transfer management for privately offered equity securities."

Bank of New York Mellon will act as administrator of the system, which is intended to "promote liquidity and efficiency for qualified institutional buyers" who trade unregistered equity securities "and enhance issuers' capital raising efforts." The companies added that more securities firms are expected to participate in OPUS-5 over time. The market is slated to launch next month.

Goldman Sachs unveiled its system, called GS TRuE, in May. Among others, Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. is also planning its own new market for smaller, unregistered securities.

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Daniel Simkowitz, head of equity products at Morgan Stanley, said in an interview that his group's system will differ from Goldman most notably in that is more open.

"There is a big difference in the way it was set up and in the philosophy" of OPUS-5, he added. "The firms believe strongly that this should be an open system -- multiple market makers and run and administered by an independent firm."

Mr. Simkowitz went on to say OPUS-5 "will be agnostic to front-end trading systems. We're trying to create more liquidity and we think that will draw more" initial offerings of stock by private companies to the securities markets.

Mr. Simkowitz has also predicted that the emerging systems will eventually become one. "This is in essence a part of the merger," he said Tuesday. "The firms have or could have created their own systems." Mr. Simkowitz noted OPUS-5 will be able to link into any number of exchanges or trading systems.

Mr. Simkowitz is essentially echoing the prediction I made back in May, when the GS TrUE platform was first announced:

But if I were a betting man, I'd wager that the TrUE structure and the inevitable variants will become an increasingly attractive alternative for top new-issue prospects, especially now that Oaktree has broken the ice. The offering was a success and congratulations to all. Except my friends at the NYSE and Nasdaq, whom I assume are shaking in their boots.

Whether or not OPUS-5 will actually create more liquidity than GS TrUE is a matter for debate (but of little consequence, I think). I firmly believe that volumes on these private exchanges will continue to grow and become an increasingly significant part of the new issue calendar, directly impacting the NYSE and NASDAQ (notwithstanding their Portal initiative). The SEC's response so far? Not much. Time will tell, but so far I've told it pretty straight. This will become a hot-button issue for both Congress and the SEC in the not-too-distant future.

Picking up Girls? Landing a Job? Contrarian Investing?: George Costanza's "Do the Opposite" Holds the Key

August 13, 2007

When George Constanza came to the conclusion that every instinct he had, every thought that passed through his mind was simply wrong, he logically reasoned that by doing the opposite he should enjoy  much better outcomes. He tested it out by trying to pick up a hot, seemingly unapproachable woman. It worked. He tried it out by being rude, yet brutally honest with George Steinbrenner in a job interview. It worked. In one fell swoop George figured out that by being a contrarian,  he could achieve much better results than by following his  gut. And the funny thing is, this kind of thing just works, and often-times is the best strategy to follow in investing. Like right now. When it is too painful for most to put fresh cash to work in beaten-up sectors and funds. Unless you're really smart and really liquid like, say, Eli Broad, Hank Greenberg and Goldman Sachs?

Let's consider what I mean when I say "Contrarian investing." Per Wikipedia:

A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricings in securities markets. For example, widespread pessimism about a stock can drive a price so low that it overstates the company's risks, and understates its prospects for returning to profitability. Identifying and purchasing such distressed stocks, and selling them after the company recovers, can lead to above-average gains. Similarly, widespread optimism can result in unjustifiably high valuations that will eventually lead to drops, when those high expectations don't pan out. Avoiding investments in over-hyped investments reduces the risk of such drops. These general principles can apply whether the investment in question is an individual stock, an industry sector, or an entire market or asset class.

Contrarians are sometimes thought of as perma-bears—market participants who are permanently biased to a bear market view. However, a contrarian does not necessarily have a negative view of the overall stock market, nor does he believe that it is always overvalued, or that the conventional wisdom is always wrong. Rather, a contrarian seeks opportunities to buy or sell specific investments when the majority of investors appear to be doing the opposite, to the point where that investment has become mispriced. While more "buy" candidates are likely to be identified during market declines (and vice versa), these opportunities can occur during periods when the overall market is generally rising or falling.

It might seem a little stunning that in the face of a $1.4 billion drop in assets of Goldman Sachs Global Equities Opportunities Fund, three investors, including Goldman itself, would pony up an extra $3 billion. In actual fact, it makes perfect sense. This has been a bloodbath. Certain types of funds have gotten hit worse then others, and then the question becomes: are these strategies broken or is this a liquidity-driven price adjustment that is somewhat overdone? Clearly the three investors have great faith in the team and the strategies being managed, so much so that they feel they are making a deep-value bet on a fund that has been a strong performer. Just because many stat arb funds have gotten crushed over the past month, does this mean that stat arb as a strategy sucks or that the managers (like, say, Jim Simonds?) themselves suck? Clearly not. But a lot of people neither have the stomach nor the liquidity to make bets like Hank Greenberg and Eli Broad.

And I'll tell you now that some smart, rich folks are going to make an absolute killing on lower-rated credit spreads. Because so many funds and firms were all playing the same two games, borrowing liquid short and lending illiquid long and going long lower-rated credit spreads and going short either equity or higher-rated credit spreads, often on a highly leveraged basis, the speed and depth of the unwinding that is taking place (and isn't nearly done) will cause out-of-favor asset prices to get overly depressed and present a massive buying opportunity. If you have the guts and the liquidity, that is.

And this reminds me of a quote from Bill Gross of Pimco in last Saturday's New York Times:

“Our current system of levered finance and its related structures may be critically flawed,” said William H. Gross, the chief investment officer of Pimco, a mutual fund company. “Nothing within it allows for the hedging of liquidity risk, and that is the problem at the moment.”

Now I respect Bill Gross quite a bit and generally think he says some pretty intelligent stuff, but this doesn't fall into that category. The problem isn't with the system - it's with the participants. You know how you hedge liquidity risk? By doing one of a few things:

  1. Keeping excess cash on hand to cushion statistical anomalies in returns (at least what you might model as statistical anomalies);
  2. Diversifying the portfolio such that your asset classes don't approach perfect correlation in market dislocations; and
  3. Avoiding too much leverage.

Now if the funds that melted down had followed at least one of these three rules, do you think they would have suffered the same fate? I think not. But if you want to fly high like Icarus, you run the risk of having your wings burned off. The problem is, you know who ends up holding the bag? Jeff Larson? No, his investors. This is why funds like Sowood managed $3 billion (run fast, run hot, put up numbers, get big, rake in fees and blow up - a classic negatively skewed/short option return profile),  while guys like Nassim Taleb can't raise much of anything (run like a turtle, hemmorage theta, bleed until the market craps out and then make a tidy sum - a classic positively skewed/long option return profile). There is no sexiness or appeal about losing most of the time and then winning big, as opposed to "winning" most of the time and then losing big. The issue is that most investors can't get out when the usual winner is about to give it all back, while the principals of such funds still captured a large share of the spoils on the way up. It is what it is, I guess. I just find times like these instructive. If only managers and investors took instruction... 

Selling More by Charging More? For Certain Products, Yes.

August 09, 2007

Seems kind of weird, no? But in the wacky world of conspicuous consumption, where price and flash is the objective, it is not so strange. And this clearly applies to goods like $3,000 cashmere sweaters and $2,000 pairs of shoes. But what about things like Starbuck's Coffee? $5 for a chai latte? Would it sell as well at $1.50? This concept was highlighted in a story in today's New York Times:

“Price certainly plays into a product’s allure,” said Robert Burke, a retail consultant in New York. “For certain people, the higher the price, the more attractive the item becomes.”

An exorbitant price can confer exclusivity. “People are willing to pay a significant amount of money to make sure they don’t see their purchase on other people,” Mr. Burke said.

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Among merchants and manufacturers, consumer psychology can be as significant as economics in setting prices. “Luxury makers are not necessarily forced to raise prices above the exchange-rate factor, but sometimes they do,” said Milton Pedraza of the Luxury Institute, a research group in New York. “Why? They know that consumers are resilient. For manufacturers, it’s really about asking for a price increase because you can.”

It is an interesting concept. Paying a higher price can have a powerful psychological effect on the purchaser, making them feel as if they are receiving something of higher quality, of greater exclusivity, of, in short, higher value. Or at least higher utility. It is pretty easy to understand the example of luxury goods, where they can be displayed in order to show one's wealth, taste and distinction.

But what about a thing like information? If someone charges $50 for something that is really good, will anyone important really pay attention? Because if you are important, you don't have time for messing around with $50 things, right? But what about if that thing is priced at, say, $5,000? Does that important person now have the time to consider it? They may well be more apt to consider it due to its price, because the assumption is that if something is priced that high, it must be important. This is a kind of tortured example of a Giffen Good, one whose demand actually goes up as price goes up. Now my example doesn't strictly meet the test of such a good, but the concept is similar. Higher price, higher demand. This is a concept that I find very interesting, and represents a "holy grail" of any product development effort.

 

Gaming Consoles are for Playing Games; All the Rest is Flash

Well, well, well. "Window to the living room.""If we build it they will come." These phrases and others like them are the stock in trade of my friends over at Microsoft and Sony. Build a big, powerful, muscle-bound machine with a billion features and people will be willing to pay a premium price for all this added functionality beyond gaming. No, I said. People who buy gaming consoles want to play games. I've been writing about this for 10 months. Sure, online games are great. But HD-DVD, Blu-ray, etc., etc., etc., for $500, $600 bucks? I said "You're limiting your market and strictly catering to the hard-core gamer. No, Microsoft and Sony said. You don't get it. This is a long-term strategy. Our customers will get it.The problem is, according to a recent NPD survey, that they're not getting it. Not at all. This from today's ARS Technica:

The Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 consoles are marvels of technology. The PlayStation 3 features a Blu-ray player, the ability to stream video and music from your PC, and it's a very impressive upscaling DVD player. The 360 has a robust selection of movies and television shows you can purchase and rent through the Xbox Live service, and with VGA or HDMI connections it will also upscale your DVDs. For some gamers, these functions go a long way towards justifying the high price of these systems, but a new study from the NPD Group suggests that not only are people not using these functions, they're not even aware of them.

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It's apparent from the study's results that one thing interests the majority of consumers: games. The dueling next-generation HD disc formats, the ability to download content, and even high-definition graphics don't seem to matter to the majority of the game-buying public; if these figures are reflective of the wider market, all those features are being roundly ignored by most gamers.

When you take another look at the three next-generation systems through this filter, it becomes obvious why the Wii is in such a dominant position. It's the least expensive system, and all the added features that make the extra cost of the 360 and PS3 good values to the plugged-in aren't swaying the mainstream buying public. With constantly shifting hardware configurations, falling prices, and the HD DVD/Blu-ray fight still going strong, Microsoft and Sony may be sending the message that they're too complicated for the average gamer, while Nintendo's game-first attitude and strikingly lower price point may be exactly what the majority of console buyers want.

Doh! Not exactly what the pooh-bahs at Sony and Microsoft want to hear. Gamers want to play, what, games? Not to be an I-told-you-so guy, but here is what I wrote four months ago on this exact topic, building on my earlier thinking from last fall:

Fast forward to today. Both Microsoft and Sony are offering super-premium versions of their products, more firmly cementing their bets in the multimedia space. Hard-core gamers seem willing to pay for the high-end graphics and extra functionality, but what about the casual gamer? They seem to be much more in tune with the features, functionality, usability - and price - of the Wii. Nintendo has clearly struck a chord with the everyman, someone who just wants to step to the plate, bowl a game, smash that serve or share with their friends. Nintendo is about accessibility, ease of use, value and fun. Theirs is not a holy war against a competitor, but a quest for understanding and acceptance from their market. THE market. The market where you can sell 100 million consoles. The market that provides you with the foundation to layer on additional features as technology costs continue to drop and even more games are developed for the platform. Microsoft and Sony are battling it out in the trenches. Nintendo isn't playing their game. Interestingly enough, they are clearly winning. Just look at the stock price.

Sheesh. Kind of the way it has played out, huh? Now I know that the mucky-mucks at Sony and Microsoft will pooh-pooh this survey as they do most other forms of market feedback, but that's ok. We know the truth. The market has spoken. The only question is, who is really listening? In one word: Nintendo.

Xbox 360: $50 Bucks Less in the US Won't Fix a Broken Strategy

August 08, 2007

One month ago I came up with a list of things Microsoft needs to do to get the Xbox 360 strategy on track:

  1. Cut the price;
  2. Deal with the product defect issue head-on and move forward;
  3. Make the development of E games and changes to its platform core to its messaging; and
  4. Continue to develop leading-edge T and A games for the core gaming audience.

Well, Microsoft just dropped the price of its Xbox 360 line by $50 dollars in the US (yet no word yet about Europe).  Ok, they've taken the first step, although it is a pretty wimpy effort given where the price needs to be to appeal to a broader array of gamers. But price is only a small piece of the puzzle. They need to listen to their current customers and the broader market they purport to be targeting if they have any chance of achieving a decent return on their multi-billion dollar investment. The handling of the product defect issue? Too little, too late. The price cut? Too little, too late.  Getting the non-hard core gaming market excited about their upcoming offerings, as well as convinced about their commitment to both  leading-edge games and innovative hardware enhancements beyond the current controller? Hasn't happened yet. And this also means getting the developer community behind the console as something other than a hard-core product dependent upon Halo 3, Gears of War and games of this ilk. I haven't seen evidence of this strategic shift and messaging, and am personally quite cynical that without a pronounced change in Microsoft H&E leadership that this will happen any time soon.

And as cynical as I am about Microsoft's Xbox 360 strategy, consider these words from the guys over at GigaOM:

If you glance at game industry news every now and again, you might have noticed that Microsoft (MSFT) is lowering the price of its Xbox 360 line by $50, starting today. But unless you’re a hardcore gamer who’s already planning to buy a 360, it’s too little, too late. It won’t significantly extend the 360’s waning lead in the market, or bolster Microsoft’s dreams of owning the PC living room space, let alone stop the juggernaut that is the Nintendo Wii. Why? Neither the original Xbox or its follow-up have built up much of an install base outside of the hardcore gamer demographic, which typically buys next-generation consoles in the first few years of their cycle. By one estimate, these “power gamers” comprise just 6 million U.S. households; the remaining 47 million who play games but aren’t so eager to pay $350-plus for a new gaming system are likely to remain unmoved by such a paltry price cut. With 10.3 million units sold worldwide, this market is pretty much tapped out, leaving Microsoft to struggle against 360’s branding as a hardcore gamer system (which the company itself fostered) while competing with a console that entirely owns the “game system for everybody” niche.

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And regardless the 360’s price, the industry is moving away from the system in the area that matters most: exclusive titles and development budgets. Here the Wii has already claimed victory; it has the most exclusives currently in production, while top publishers like Electronic Arts and Activision are shifting their budgets in Nintendo’s direction. (It’s doubtful that the sequel to the 360’s upcoming lead exclusive, Halo 3, will bring in any new customers.)

So in the end, it doesn’t matter if the 360 is $50 or even $100 less. Ultimately, the price cut will just reveal how niche the system has become.

Exactly. Come on, guys. The blogosphere, be it the guys at GigaOM, Chris Kohler at Wired Game I Life or myself, have come up with some pretty rational approaches for how you can get it together. Unfortunately, however, our protestations seem to fall on deaf ears. Best of luck with your "winning strategy." I guess you know best.

Reader Counter-Point: The PS3 is Doing "Quite Well"

I get lots of interesting mail from readers, much of which expands on the themes I've written about in Information Arbitrage. I recently received an interesting and detailed note concerning Sony's PS3, offering a perspective backed up with some data that is much more rosy than mine. In the spirit of equal time, I thought I'd share the contents of this note in full-text, unedited, in order to let my readers make the call.

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I enjoy your blog. I have been reading your posts about the console industry and have some counter data-points.

I understand you look at things from the PoV of an investor. As an investor in Sony, I see data (listed below) which makes me confident of the PlayStation platform. It indicates, at least, that the PS3 is doing quite well and that the Wii is not likely to destroy the PS3 or Sony's profits from SCEI.

1. The PS3 launched at a very high price, yet the sales are doing as well as the PS2 in its 1st year. In that context, it is quite a testament to its appeal. If we time-align the 2 launches: http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=PS2&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=PS3&reg3=All&align=1

2. And interestingly, PS3 sales are doing as well as the xbox360 (time-aligned from launch), though the PS3 launched with competition from the 360 And Wii while the 360 had no competition during its launch year. Again, a testament to the PS3's appeal. http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=X360&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=PS3&reg3=All&align=1

3. For FY06, 15M PS2s were sold. In fact, high-quality titles are still in the pipeline for the PS2, as part of Sony's typical long life-cycle and support.  The importance of the PS2 sales is that these are likely to be PS3 buyers in the future, given backward compatibility built into the PS3 and of course, Sony studios-exclusive franchises popular with PS2 gamers. (The Wii will likely hit that number by Nov (1 year after launch) but is unlikely to exceed ~18M since it is now at under 10M.)

4. The PS3 and Wii are in different market segments. I don't have studies to quote, but there are unlikely to be many gamers out there who would buy a Wii if they find the PS3 too expensive currently and then not buy a PS3 when the price falls to 250-300 bucks.

5. Sony has a massive number of exclusive first-party titles in the works due to the large # of game studios it has.

6. Lastly, check out HOME on the PS3 as a glimpse of a possible future. Good stuff.

I agree that the Wii is a game-changer but it is not attracting away the kind of gamers that Sony designed the PS3 for. Wii seems to be expanding the size of the gaming industry by pulling in people who may not have gamed otherwise. But, if what the Wii offers is a motion-sensitive controller, adding that to the PS3 is quite easy, given that it already has wireless motion-sensing built in.

As an admirer of the console's hardware engineering and its feature-set, I hope they add that, if for no other reason than the fact that a larger install base means more and better games.

P.S. My gut-feel is that the Wii will fade out. Imo, it is fairly gimmicky and gets boring surprisingly fast. But, thats my personal experience only. The other 10M buyers may disagree  =)

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I think this reader has hit on some pretty important points that warrant mention. And it is not as if the PS3 is destined for financial failure, notwithstanding the myriad missteps by multiple layers of Sony management. But I also believe that price cuts and an adaptation of its existing controller is not a prescriptive for the PS3s success, especially if Sony wishes the console to appeal to an increasingly broad-based audience. And it is not as if Nintendo will be standing still, either. It can reduce price. It can add lots of functionality to its existing feature set. It can more fully leverage the community aspect of its platform, bringing even more people together to engage in contests that can be enjoyed by gamers of all levels and stripes. And, most importantly, it has caught the imagination of game developers, for whom creating a broader palette of games is both fun and less financially risky than for those creating for PS3 and Xbox 360. In short, I think my reader has raised great points and I appreciate that he raised them, but I remain unconvinced that Sony management will get the long-term PS3 strategy right and/or that Nintendo management will get the Wii strategy wrong. But hey, that's just my two cents.

Lead Developer Wanted: Mytrade.com

August 06, 2007

My pals Andy and Landon Swan, founders of the hot Netvibes-meets-investing-and-more start-up Mytrade.com are looking for top Lead Developer to join their high-performance team:

Candidate Requirements

  • "Entrepreneurial" in vision, dedication and work ethic—this is not a “punch the clock 9 to 5” type of position. We’re looking for someone DEDICATED and PASSIONATE about creating something BIG and EXCITING.
  • Experienced in developing web 2.0 (social, mobile and extensible) concepts and technologies
  • Intelligent and creative
  • Experienced in project development, resourcing, testing and deployment
  • Able to maintain and meet many development deadlines simultaneously (organized multi-tasker)
  • Highly proficient in .net, html, javascript, & SQL
  • Experienced managing both in-house and outsourced development teams
  • Willing to relocate to Louisville, KY

Additional Desirable Attributes

  • Previous work within a start-up a bonus
  • General stock market understanding a bonus
  • Flash & linux a plus, but not required

Job Description

Lead Developer will be responsible for:

  • Creative input into vision of mytrade network/website
  • Managing projects using in-house and outsourced development teams effectively and efficiently
  • Lead the development efforts with both coding and management skills
  • Making sure things work like they are supposed to!

Location

Based in Louisville, KY with some domestic travel (primarily to NYC and Silicon Valley)

These guys rocked the house with DayTradeTeam, and they are doing it again, only bigger, with Mytrade.com. Squarely at the intersection of social media, digital media and investing, Andy and Landon have put together a powerful business model, a set of top backers and possess a valuable network across
both online and offline worlds. They will win. If you've got the goods, drop them a note at careers@mytrade.com.

Crumbling Infrastructure? Broken Schools? Unleash the Power of the Free Markets

August 05, 2007

In Saturday's Wall Street Journal, there were two Op-ed pieces on the same page, seemingly unrelated. One carried a profile of Newark, New Jersey's dynamic young Mayor, Cory Booker, while the other was a commentary about the decaying infrastructure of the US and some suggestions for fixing it from a senior editor at the Manhattan Institute. After reading these two stories, however, I found that there were several key themes binding them together:

  • Each was discussing a very critical, yet very political problem facing our society;
  • Each was calling for powerful new ideas for fixing these seemingly intractable problems;
  • Each has to overcome a legacy of populist rhetoric in order have a chance at success;
  • Each acknowledged that without dramatic action, what are currently bad situations will only get worse; and
  • Each proposed solution is centered around privatization and/or letting the free markets dictate capital allocation.

Education and transportation? In reality, they are attached at the hip. In the US, both areas have historically been addressed through centralized government policies backed by federal and state tax dollars. Needless to say, one need only look at the condition of our highways relative to those in Western Europe to understand the pitiful state of our infrastructure, or to look at where the US ranks among developed nations with respect to academic achievement. In plain english - we suck. Now Mr. Booker of Newark and Mr. Malanga of the Manhattan Institute understand this, and they also understand the compelling argument for letting the free markets determine the values of things like roads, bridges, and schools.

Consider this extract from Christian Sahner's interview with Mr. Booker in the WSJ:

Part of Mr. Booker's solution to this dilemma is education reform centered on school choice. "It's the last frontier we have to cross in order to become the most thriving city in America," he states confidently. "Parents in Newark are more demanding than ever, and they deserve a plethora of options of excellence to choose from that meet the needs of their kids." Mr. Booker is a longtime advocate of school choice: In 1999 he helped found E3, a prominent education-reform group in New Jersey that pushes for charter schools and vouchers for inner-city communities.

Newark's public schools enroll around 42,000 students. With frequent instances of in-school violence, decrepit facilities and low morale, the system is in need of serious overhaul. Just 37% of the city's high-school seniors passed the state proficiency exam in 2005, a statistic that is even more embarrassing considering that city schools spend around $20,000 per pupil -- far above the $13,000 state average (itself the second-highest in the country).

Before Mr. Booker can pursue any sweeping reforms, though, he must wrest control of the district from the state, which took over in 1995. "My goal is to turn the clock back to the '70s and vest control in the mayor to appoint school board members that can drive an agenda for reform," Mr. Booker says with hope. "Elected school boards often hit the lowest common denominator . . . they are not the way to get courageous, driven change."

Mr. Booker emphasizes that until local control returns -- which, thanks to recent moves by the state, could be within "16 to 18 months" -- his powers are limited. But that hasn't stopped him from cultivating donors to start thinking about charter schools for the future. Last month, he flew to Seattle to meet with representatives of the Gates Foundation. "We had very strong conversations," he reports. "I told them, 'If we can grow KIPP schools and overachieving charter schools [in Newark], it will be much easier to show that [school choice] can work, because you'll see results a lot quicker than in a place like New York, which has around a million school-aged children.'"

Mr. Booker is looking for change, dramatic change, and for the tools to help him make it happen. Private funding. The ability to bring in progressive, fresh thinking, action-oriented members of the school board to support his challenging initiatives. Is there any argument for not giving Mr. Booker - and the free markets - a chance to solve this generations-long problem? Newark has among the highest per pupil spending of any school district in the country, yet with performance that words are inadequate to describe; how about starting with offensive? As a taxpayer, I expect my dollars to go farther, much farther than they appear to be going in Newark. Charter schools. Parent choice. These will quickly separate the wheat from the chaff, shining a bright light on those schools that the free market deems worthy versus those than simply don't cut it. Anyway, I hope Mr. Booker succeeds. And maybe I'll just think of a way to try and help him out.

Mr. Malanga, though writing on a distinctly different topic, captures the essence of the battle Mr. Booker is waging against an inadequate academic product expect with respect to our inadequate infrastructure product:

Nearly a fifth of America's roads are now considered in poor shape and about one-in-four bridges is rated "structurally deficient." The U.S. Department of Transportation estimates that the cost to fix these problems is a staggering $460 billion. The tab grows far larger when you add in the hundreds of billions to build the new transportation infrastructure that's needed to handle the country's growth.

Part of the problem is that big increases in state and local spending for politically popular programs, especially Medicaid and education, as well costly public employee pensions and benefits, have crowded out infrastructure -- even as some traditional sources of financing for roads and bridges, such as the proceeds from gas taxes, haven't kept pace with demand.

It's unlikely that public funds alone will supply what's needed. Rising gasoline prices have made it politically unpalatable to increase fuel taxes, while some state and local budgets are already groaning under the weight of decades of borrowing, making massive new debt offerings more and more difficult. More federal transportation money? The problem is that 98% of our bridges and 97% of our roads are owned and operated by state and local governments -- and that these governments have often used past increases in federal transportation aid simply to replace their own infrastructure spending.

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Using traditional means of valuing a public asset -- which is to calculate how much in municipal financing could be raised by floating bonds backed by the road's tolls -- Indiana pegged the road's value at $1.8 billion. Instead, the nearly $4 billion that Indiana got has replenished the state's transportation fund and allowed the state to embark on an aggressive program of new building and maintenance.

Mr. Daniels is not the only public official to tap the market. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley garnered $1.8 billion auctioning the city's Skyway to the same partners who purchased Indiana's Toll Road. He's now trying to sell Midway Airport, which could fetch up to $3 billion. As in the Indiana deal, Chicago discovered that its roadway, whose worth the city's advisers had pegged at $900 million, was far more valuable to private investors. The vast disparity in valuation highlights essential differences between the private and public sectors.

For starters, private financiers in these deals -- mostly managers of international pension funds with enormous sums to invest -- often have a greater taste for risk than the typical conservative investor in municipal bonds. The winning consortium in the Chicago Skyway auction estimated that traffic would grow annually by about 3%. The city's own study used a more conservative 1% growth rate. The small difference, stretched out over decades, resulted in a vastly greater valuation.

Moreover, the Skyway sale transfers risk from the taxpayer to the private owner. If the road's traffic doesn't grow as anticipated, investors must accept a lower rate of return. Thus incentivized, the Skyway's new owners quickly installed an electronic toll-collection system and assigned additional collectors during rush hour to reduce wait times and expand use of the road.

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Nevertheless, opponents of privatizations and private-public partnerships argue that private operators can only make money "at the expense of" taxpayers, and that the new owners will skimp on maintenance and repair work in order to squeeze profits out of these operations. These objections typically ignore the significant restrictions and operating requirements written into the contracts -- here in the U.S. and around the world -- which allow governments to cancel the deals, take back the roads and bridges and keep the cash if operators don't live up to the terms.

Taxpayers are protected by an even more powerful mechanism, namely consumer choice. The majority of toll roads, to take one example, are built as high-speed alternatives to already existing routes. If the roads become too expensive or unpleasant to drive, their owners risk losing business that they are counting on to make their investments successful.

Do you see what's going on here? The argument for a market-based solution to US infrastructure problems is compelling, but there are embedded biases and political interests that stand in the way of the logical and best solution from being employed. Fortunately  (or unfortunately), the situation is becoming so dire that certain states are taking matters into their own hands and using privatization as a vehicle for raising much-needed funds and getting better privately-funded infrastructure in the process. I expect that this trend will continue as the benefits of using the free markets as a vehicle for solving our infrastructure woes are simply too compelling, even in the face of political rhetoric to the contrary.

Education, infrastructure, whatever. Let the free markets do their jobs. They consistently yield the best results and the highest quality. The question is when our legislators begin to internalize this reality and apply more market-oriented perspectives into their policy-making. Hopefully it is right around the corner. For all of our sakes.

What Leadership Looks Like: Bill Walsh

August 04, 2007

When most people - sports fans, at least - think about  Bill Walsh, they generally think about two things: (1) his creation of the "West Coast" offense, the fast-breaking, field-spreading plays that fundamentally changed football strategy on both sides of the ball; and (2) his three Super Bowl wins at the helm of the San Francisco 49ers during the 1980s. He was a football God, no doubt. But in the final analysis, he was really much, much more than that. He was a leader of the highest order, possessing attributes and approaches we can all learn from, regardless of vocation. Here is my assessment of the late Mr. Walsh and what I think his legacy as a model leader should encompass:

Intelligence: Without question, Bill Walsh was one of the brightest and most cerebral of NFL coaches. In fact, prior to being hired, some in NFL leadership viewed this as a negative, unsure how his brilliance as a behind-the-scenes strategist would translate into an on-the-field leader. The cynics were proved wrong and his brainpower became a priceless asset during his tenure as head coach at both Stanford and the 49ers.

Innovation: The West Coast offense was, in Clay Christensen's parlance, a "disruptive technology." In a similar vein as the forward pass, the West Coast offense caused competitors to rapidly change their schemes lest they get blown off the field by a high-percentage, fast-scoring offensive strategy. This meant re-fashioning both their offense and their defense, giving the 49ers a sizable lead that translated into three Super Bowl titles in eight years.

Mentoring: Mr. Walsh was likely the one coach that seeded more future NFL