What Can We Learn from Lonelygirl15?
My partner Jeff and I spend a lot of time talking and thinking about the impact of the internet on how information is discovered, disseminated, and commented upon. What is clear from our discussions and observations in the real world is that the internet has created a New Information Dissemination Cycle (the "S-curve"), one which has in many ways usurped the primacy of MSM by leveraging the collective intelligence of millions of eyeballs across the globe. And experience has shown that many of these eyeballs are possessed by people with valuable insights, unique positions and perspectives from which to bring newsworthy items to the fore. Once this information cycle gets geared up, there is no stopping it. Rapid feedback loops get created where layers of commentary help weed out the value-added from the crap, eventually leading to conclusions that are frequently correct and arrived at well in advance of being picked up by the MSM. All of this and more was on display during the fascination, suspicion, mystery and eventual busting of Lonelygirl15.
What became clear to me after looking at the exhaust over the past few months is that the MSM got totally scooped by the blog community, and was so late to the party (the party not being Lonelygirl15's popularity but her being a concocted persona) as to have been completely and utterly marginalized. Let me offer the conclusion of this post right here: the world has changed. Why? Because the internet has created a vehicle for information discovery, dissemination, comment and feedback unlike any other, and because of its ability to leverage the combined brain of millions of people with vast experiences, skills, perspectives and positions it simply offers a platform for news identification that is the future. And, as I'll illustrate through a discussion of the "undressing" of Lonelygirl15, the future is now.
Where is the one place where the discovery process for Lonelygirl15 is on display for all to see? You guessed it, Wikipedia. A consolidated view of all the adds, enhancements and edits for the Lonelygirl15 entry can be found here. A more textured chronology across the internet and MSM landscapes is provided below.
Lonelygirl15 post her first of many vblogs – 6/16/2006
http://youtube.com/watch?v=-goXKtd6cPoSpeculation first builds concerning the validity of the videos as stated on Wikipedia’s first entry – 7/24/2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Lonelygirl15&oldid=65496394NYTimes comments on the vblog’s popularity – 7/28/2006
http://screens.blogs.nytimes.com/?p=46?8dpcLonelygirl15 is one of YouTube’s most popular videos as evident by the number of “Reponses” – 8/6/2006
http://youtube.com/results?search_query=What+Did+Daniel+and+Dad+Talk+About&search=SearchMore evidence of hoax appears on Wikipedia – 8/6/2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Lonelygirl15&oldid=67944301Documentary filmmaker Brian Flemming discusses on his blog the phenomenon and why it’s probably fake – 8/21/2006
http://www.slumdance.com/blogs/brian_flemming/archives/002277.htmlMore speculation from New York Magazine – 8/26/2006
http://nymag.com/arts/tv/features/19376/index.htmlCreators admit that the videos are fake on Lonelygirl15.com’s forums – 9/7/2006
http://www.lonelygirl15.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=36"Lonelygirl15-obsessed amateur Web sleuths" discover the “show” was created by CAA – 9/8/2006
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-et-lonelygirl8sep08,0,5310001.storyActress identified by Silicon Valley Watcher blog – 9/12/2006
http://www.siliconvalleywatcher.com/mt/archives/2006/09/the_identity_of.phpThe MSM eats the story up – 9/13/2006
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=lonelygirl15&btnG=Search+News
This is great stuff! To me the most significant thing about the process of discovering the real Bree is that it perfectly conforms to the S-curve, and only serves to reinforce the power and value of the blogger community when a feedback loop (like that provided by collaborative platforms like Wikipedia or widely-read bloggers like Silicon Valley Watcher whose comment threads are a valuable part of the discovery process) is included in the mix.
The beauty of the S-curve, while it appears that information should naturally travel in one direction (from left to right), is that there is an implicit feedback loop. While early discovery might occur by a narrowly-followed blogger who is then picked up by a blogger with a wider audience and eventually finds its way into the MSM, once something is published in MSM it often provides the fodder for commentary in the blogosphere and the process starts all over again. These loops will happen until people are satisfied that the questions asked or the issues posed are addressed; otherwise, the loops will simply pick up steam until satisfaction (read: discovery) is gotten.
As a relative newbie to the tech scene, I have to say that this phenomenon (the New Information Dissemination Cycle) is probably the single most awesome thing I've witnessed. Better than iPod. Better than Zune. Better than Slingbox. Those thing are cool. This is changing the way we think. This is changing the world.
John, that is a good post by Malcolm. I agree with him, particuarly as it relates to politics, that much of the activity in the blogosphere is, in fact, derivative. And this isn't bad; criticism by its very nature IS derivative, and it provides a very useful function. That said, when it comes to product insights, mining arcane documents (say, FCC filings) for information and writing about it, being a company insider and letting something slip about a new product feature or timing of release, this is PRIMARY, not derivative. This stuff happens all the time in the blogosphere, just as outlined in my Lonelygirl15 post. Blogs in and of themselves are neither a panacea nor a replacement for MSM, but they are, and can be, pretty cool and very powerful and informative. Sometimes even moreso that MSM.
Posted by: Roger | September 17, 2006 at 11:42 PM
A counterpoint in the blogs vs. MSM debate-- http://gladwell.typepad.com/gladwellcom/2006/07/the_derivative_.html
Posted by: John | September 17, 2006 at 12:37 PM
I wonder whether, and if so how, these two different universes of the blogosphere and the MSM will converge. An interresting tidbit and example of how these two groups live in different spheres, if you look at the NY Times most popular page, the Lonelygirl15 story is at the top of the most blogged list but doesn't appear anywhere on the most e-mailed list. That's comparing the blogosphere to a tech savvy group (those that read the NYT online and email around interesting articles), not even to your average hard-copy reader or TV-watcher news consumer.
Posted by: jonathanm | September 15, 2006 at 01:15 PM
Roger, the other thing I love about the S-Curve is looking at the speed of disclosure. There are times when news travels from the blogs with the speed of a Cat 5 Hurricane and other times when we have a storm stuck in the blogs that makes it to the Main Stream Media after many weeks or never.
For an investor this kind of information analysis is amazing. By really knowing a company or Industry and incorporating this type of early warning analysis you can great insight into Porter's 5 forces and the firm's competitive edge. I have been looking at news and blogs for a while now and stories that are taking shape in the blogosphere often become seeds for an already battered News Media.
The butterfly is flapping on the Internet first and more often than not, causing fast moving storms that are impacting equities profoundly.
Posted by: Robert Passarella | September 15, 2006 at 10:32 AM