RSS as an Emerging Market?

I just read two pretty interesting posts about the RSS "phenomenon" - one by Dead 2.0 and another by Scoble. The center of the debate seems to be that if RSS is so damn great and is going to change the world, why do 98% of the people not subscribe to an RSS feed while 89% have no idea what it is? Distilling both posts (and overlaying a little of my own knowledge and common sense), it seems that the biggest issue is that of marketing - the terms "RSS" and "feeds" are just too geeky for normal folks, and, in fact, are off-putting. I kind of buy this argument. One need not be a Luddite to be totally overwhelmed with what's happening in Internet-land, and RSS is only the latest manifestation of people's techno-fear. "RSS Reader? What the hell is that?" That said, RSS is game-changing and will, in fact, change the world. The only questions are: (1) when; and (2) by whom?

Wheneth RSS?

In thinking about the growth and development of RSS and its dissemination across the technology landscape, it really seems to be a parallel to investment in the emerging markets. RSS, as such, is an opportunity, just like the emerging markets are an opportunity. However, investing in the emerging markets is scary because they are unproven and highly volatile - kind of like start-ups leveraging RSS. But the markets themselves are just too big to be ignored, so the key becomes picking the winners and losers (countries and companies) and who has the biggest advantages when investing in these markets. So as to wheneth RSS? Now. But the amounts invested will pick up steam as experience is garnered, "markets" (read: client adoption and marketing success) become more stable and risk is squeezed out of the system.

Some will invest big early because they have conviction and know the biggest rewards come to those who are willing to assume the greatest risks, while others will only want to invest a little to gain some exposure and experience and to see how it goes. This seems to me a lot like the way VCs and strategic investors approach investing in RSS and related technologies - risks are high, yet less for those where there is a strategic advantage (like an oil company buying drilling rights in an emerging market), but warrant investment in any event because the long-term upside is just too big. Making investments at this stage is hard because the information vacuum is so great, though the untold riches are alluring and the fear of "missing the wave" and being left behind is sufficient to attract investment.

Who Will Win?

Beats me. There are many far more qualified than I to make such an assessment. However, if the emerging markets are any guide those who are able to attain scale rapidly will find themselves in the pole position. And given the empirical and anecdotal data concerning adoption of and resistance to RSS, the companies that do the best job making the technology and its applications simple, straight-forward, non-threatening and accessible will be able to create that scale and secure the first-mover advantage. Another fixture of the emerging markets are that those whom are the best at risk management stand the best chance of surviving - and thriving. And given the nascent (yet inevitable) nature of RSS, stumbles are certain to occur and will take down those whom are not sufficiently nimble and adaptive to respond.

Let's just hope we don't see the emerging markets debt crisis of 1998 redux - that, we don't need.

Comments

[Brian Magierski]

What needs to be understood about the RSS opportunity is that it is a protocol. SMTP is a protocol that delivers email. A lot of comapanies made a ton of money and added a ton of value in the email market (Microsoft being one example). We never really referred to the great SMTP market.

What is needed for RSS is some applications that leverage the protocol that are "easy to use" and "add value". The market may be for content syndication services or something like that. Again, we will have servers, readers, and other applications, just like with email we have email servers, email clients, spam protection, etc.

IMO RSS needs to get beyond the protocol to usable applications/services that leverage it. That day will be here when all of those "What is RSS" links disappear from websites.

-- brian

[Yaser Anwar]

The problem really is that the web feed toolset is still growing. RSS editors and generators slowly will convert all characters to their entity equivalent as necessary.

There's a complete lack of information about RSS that makes sense to the normal person. But, as soon as they see the amazing possibilities, they're all over it!

One of the other reasons for lack of knowledge is, Microsoft's Internet Explorer, with 92% market share, has no support for reading or aggregating RSS feeds. The Internet is now the numero uno choice for news in the 18–50 year old age group, hence i believe Mr. Softy will eventually include RSS support thus it will provide an incentive for more publishers to support RSS.

Apple is joining the trend of browser makers embracing Web news feeds and potentially bringing the technology to the masses.

During WWDC, Steve Jobs previewed the company's next version of its Web browser, dubbed Safari RSS.

We're only at the beginning of the RSS feed revolution. As Microsoft & Apple adopt and integrate them in their products, we will see enough people using feeds to form a critical, chattering mass to really shape the form soon. All we need is a plain english version of how to decipher the code words of RSS ,Atom & XML. With larger numbers will come a fantastic accleration of feeds, subscribers & publishers.